Why is China so rigid on its One China policy, and why is the U.S. ready to risk a war for Taiwan’s democracy?

While the world is still dealing with the Russia-Ukraine war, Beijing is preparing for another one. This week, US-China tensions peaked at their highest level, and the world is nervous about the potential conflict between two of the world’s most powerful military powers.

The reason for this spike is the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. China warned the U.S. of military action or even shooting down Pelosi’s plane if she visits Taiwan. There were speculations, will she go or will she not? Well, she did. Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, spent 18 hours in Taipei, met with several senior officials, and came back. Now, the ball is in China’s court. China has already started military drills around Taiwan, covering its air space from all sides.

So, why is China so rigid on its One China policy? Taiwan has its own government, military, and constitution, but China still considers it part of its mainland. Well, for that, we need to dig into our history books.

This story dates back to the time when World War 2 had just ended. The Japanese surrendered and gave up control over the Island of Taiwan. The Island of Taiwan was placed under the governance of the Republic of China, ruled by Kuomintang (KMT). But, a massive civil war broke out in China in the next five years, and the then-leader Jiang Kai Shek’s troops were beaten by China’s communist leader, Mao Zedong. The Jiang, along with its troops, fled to Taiwan in 1949 and dominated Taiwan until the year 2000 when democracy was established here. This is the main reason why China historically considers Taiwan as part of its mainland and wants it back.

Seeing Taiwan’s growing international presence and acceptance to a certain level, in 2005, China brought Anti-Secession Law. In this law, China has strictly mentioned that it shall not allow Taiwan to secede from China by any means and shall not allow any outside nation to interfere in its internal matters. China shall employ non-peaceful ways to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity if any outside country intervenes.

Now the question is, Taiwan is just a small country, around 267 times smaller than China; why has China not invaded and taken control yet? Here comes the big daddy, America. Taiwan has America’s backing, and in some recent interviews, the U.S. has made it pretty clear that if China invades Taiwan, the U.S. will defend Taiwan.

After so many warnings before and now over Nancy Pelocy’s visit, why is the U.S. still willing to defend Taiwan? After all, it’s just a tiny country. Well, there is more than one reason for that.

One of the most critical ones is the South China Sea dispute. South China’s sea has geo-strategic importance when it comes to international trade. Around 30% of the world trade uses this path, and the sea has enormous oil and natural gas reserves. It is surrounded by seven countries, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam. Each country has its own theory of claiming part of the sea, making it a disputed region.

If China gets Taiwan, it can claim even more of it. China is already doing military drills, placing military ships and even building islands to claim all of the South China Sea. This upsets the U.S. because if China owns the South China Sea, it will give China a military advantage, access to many resources and dominance over an important geo-strategic location. The U.S. fears China will overpower it.

Another reason is that although Taiwan is small, it dominates a very critical market, i.e. semi-conductors. Semi-conductors are used in every single gadget we use, from phones to watches to automobiles. As we are moving towards a more and more tech-supported ecosystem, the demand is only going to increase. Also, for your knowledge establishing a semi-conductor manufacturing unit is very expensive and producing it is a very critical task. The barriers to entry in this market are high, demand is high, and no. of suppliers are fewer. Taiwan enjoys almost 63% of the world’s semiconductor market share.

Now, if the tensions escalate and the two countries go to war, analysts speculate there can be a World War 3. And if that happens, the already crumbling global economy will be doomed to shatter further.

What do you think…Will Nancy Pelosi’s visit trigger World War 3?